December 14, 2021

FirstEnergy meteorologists Pete Manousos and Tom Workoff are men for all seasons – continuously analyzing specific criteria to predict the impact weather can have on our service territory.

“We closely monitor all weather systems as they approach our service area and distribute alerts so employees can prepare and plan accordingly,” said Pete, a consultant in Meteorology and UAS Services.

When it comes to winter, an approaching weather system must meet one or more of the following criteria to reach alert-level status:

• Wind gusts of 40 mph or more
• Ice accumulation of at least .25 inches
• Snow accumulation of 4 inches or more, particularly wet snow
• Temperatures of minus 5 or lower

“Generally, the risk for customer power outages increases when a weather system exceeds these thresholds,” said Tom, a senior scientist.

2021-22 Winter Weather Outlook

So, what are company meteorologists predicting for FirstEnergy’s service territory this winter?

“Due to a weak La Niña, there is greater than usual uncertainty in this season’s forecast,” explained Pete. “A moderate to strong La Niña tends to produce a cooler-than-normal winter with less precipitation. However, a weaker La Niña opens the door for other less-dominant factors to also influence our winter. When these less-dominant factors are present, it’s impossible to forecast more than one to two weeks in advance. As a result, our upcoming winter season has been difficult to predict.”

Overall, people who live in FirstEnergy’s five-state region have a slightly above average chance of experiencing alert-level conditions from snowfall, ice and subzero temperatures this winter. “For example, we can expect one or two additional alert-level snowfalls than we see during a normal season,” Pete said. Conversely, there is a slightly less-than-normal risk for alert-level wind events.

The presence of a weaker La Niña could result in one or two additional alert-level snowfalls hitting our service territory this winter – compared to a normal season.

The Right Tools for the Job

Without a strong influence from La Niña, company meteorologists are using other standard tools to calculate and monitor this winter’s forecast. For example, climate models are used to estimate the effect important drivers of climate – including wind patterns, oceans, land surface and ice – will have on the weather.

Another tool – historical analogs – allows meteorologists to search weather data from the last 50 to 60 years to find patterns that are similar to what is expected this year. Although difficult to create a forecast solely with this method, it provides meteorologists with a valuable starting point.

“Our main goal is to help make sure FirstEnergy is prepared for whatever this winter season has to offer,” Tom said. “By providing accurate forecasts and alerting employees to approaching storms, we can help the company mitigate the weather’s impact on equipment, reduce exposure for field workers, and keep the lights – and heat – on for customers.”